Beyond Bulls & Bears

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On My Mind: US elections—what’s next for the economy, markets and the Fed?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: US elections—what’s next for the economy, markets and the Fed?

President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals—including taxes, tariffs and a simplified regulatory regime—will likely mean stronger US economic growth and might reignite inflationary pressures. This supports Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s long-held view that this monetary policy easing cycle will be shorter and more shallow than many financial market participants expect.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | November 08, 2024
On My Mind: For a few rate cuts more
Fixed Income

On My Mind: For a few rate cuts more

Recent data releases continue to point to a stubbornly resilient US economy. This supports Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s long-held view that the neutral rate of interest lies north of 4% and suggests that this monetary policy easing cycle will be shorter and shallower than many financial market participants expect.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | October 07, 2024
On My Mind: The first cut is the deepest
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The first cut is the deepest

Where does the Fed go next after this week’s 50 basis point interest-rate cut? Thoughts from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | September 18, 2024
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Everything everywhere all at once
Fixed Income

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Everything everywhere all at once

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists note continued divergence in G3 monetary policies. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to continue gradual easing, with US politics adding uncertainty. In contrast, Japan's strong labor market may lead to more aggressive tightening than anticipated.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | September 17, 2024
On My Mind: It’s not the end of the world as we know it
Fixed Income

On My Mind: It’s not the end of the world as we know it

Recent data releases appear to give the green light for the US Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy in September. However, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai, the key issue remains the nature of the easing cycle ahead—namely its duration, its speed, and the policy rate endpoint.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | August 05, 2024
On My Mind: (r)-stargazing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: (r)-stargazing

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses where she thinks the real policy rate lies in the United States and how this informs her outlook for US Treasury yields over the medium to long term.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | June 06, 2024
On My Mind: The twin roots of rising rates
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The twin roots of rising rates

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why rising investment and persistently loose US fiscal policy are simultaneously pushing in the direction of higher long-term real interest rates.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | May 22, 2024
On My Mind: The Fed, the Treasury and a fistful of dollars
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed, the Treasury and a fistful of dollars

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why persistently loose fiscal policy, relentless price pressures and resilient economic growth may cause a problem for the US Federal Reserve—and explains the implications for bond yields.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | May 06, 2024
On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell—I still haven’t found what I’m looking for…
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell—I still haven’t found what I’m looking for…

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that the Fed's March policy meeting was not as dovish as some commentators and market participants have claimed, and that the Fed is still pragmatic and cautious about inflation and rate cuts. In her view, getting inflation down to 2% will be harder and take longer than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expects, and she predicts that rate cuts will come only later—in the second half of the year.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 22, 2024
On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the January inflation print confirms that the “last mile” of disinflation may prove to be a lot harder than markets expect, and investors should brace for more volatility and a possible move of 10-year Treasury yields back in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 14, 2024
On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the recent acceleration in productivity growth might prove durable, leading to higher potential returns on real investment and a higher equilibrium interest rate.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 07, 2024
On My Mind: Catch me if you can—Markets outrun the Fed
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Catch me if you can—Markets outrun the Fed

The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this reaction as an excess of dovish enthusiasm that sets the stage for more volatility. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | January 12, 2024