Beyond Bulls & Bears

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing

Markets think the war against inflation has been won—and the Fed seems to believe it too—but has it? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the latest data in light of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and examines whether a “painless landing” is possible.

On My Mind: Transitory tightening?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Transitory tightening?

Does the latest US data confirm the battle against inflation has already been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says markets are overly optimistic.

On My Mind: Listen to the man
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Listen to the man

Financial markets seem to have gone from “don't fight the Fed” to “don’t believe the Fed,” opines Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She offers her thoughts following the US central bank’s December policy meeting, and warns to brace for more volatility ahead.

On my mind: A different kind of pivot
Fixed Income

On my mind: A different kind of pivot

Markets hoped for a dovish Federal Reserve “pivot,” but got a hawkish surprise instead. Brace for more volatility as the yield curve adjusts, warns Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She sees the fixed income outlook as more constructive moving further forward in 2023.

On my mind: Rollercoaster ride to reality
Fixed Income

On my mind: Rollercoaster ride to reality

We are witnessing a major shift in the fixed income investment environment. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai assesses the role of global and country-specific driving forces, and shares her views on the investment opportunities ahead.

On my mind: Staying on message
Fixed Income

On my mind: Staying on message

The Fed delivered another 75 bps rate hike and reiterated its Jackson Hole message: reducing inflation is now its one and only priority. But the Fed's forecasts still seem too optimistic, and this could feed extended uncertainty and volatility in markets. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts.

On my mind: The Fed—do you hear me now?
Fixed Income

On my mind: The Fed—do you hear me now?

Fed Chairman Powell delivered a forceful and unequivocal message today at Jackson Hole, pushing back against market expectations of an early pivot back to rate cuts. Restoring price stability will require tight monetary policy for some time, he said, and the Fed will not waver when the labor market starts feeling the pain. Markets have taken notice, but will test the Fed’s resolve again, making for a volatile adjustment process in asset prices. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts:

On my mind: Are we there yet?
Fixed Income

On my mind: Are we there yet?

Are we there yet? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hedged himself carefully at the July press conference; markets heard it as confirming expectations that we are closing in on the terminal rate and that the Fed will likely start cutting again as early as March of next year. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai is not so sure—here are her thoughts:

On my mind: The Fed capitulates
Fixed Income

On my mind: The Fed capitulates

The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth. It also de facto abandoned forward guidance. It was a reminder that economic data eventually rule the day, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She argues this is a welcome but only partial move to a more realistic stance, and discusses why further hawkish surprises likely lie ahead.

On my mind: Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun
Fixed Income

On my mind: Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai believes investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided.

Quick Thoughts: Are Central Banks Too Slow to Tackle Inflation?
Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: Are Central Banks Too Slow to Tackle Inflation?

Are the reserve banks too slow in tackling inflation? Will inflation level off by itself? Will rising rates cause a recession? Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, sat down with Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai and Western Asset Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst John Bellows to discuss the investment landscape considering today’s geopolitical and economic challenges.

On My Mind: The Fed Takes the Red Pill
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed Takes the Red Pill

The Fed struck a hawkish tone at its latest meeting, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai believes it still underestimates how far rates will likely need to rise—and so do the markets. She discusses what it will take to get inflation back under control, and how fixed income investors can position for the volatile rising-rate environment ahead.