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On my mind: Staying on message
Fixed Income

On my mind: Staying on message

The Fed delivered another 75 bps rate hike and reiterated its Jackson Hole message: reducing inflation is now its one and only priority. But the Fed's forecasts still seem too optimistic, and this could feed extended uncertainty and volatility in markets. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | September 21, 2022
On my mind: The Fed—do you hear me now?
Fixed Income

On my mind: The Fed—do you hear me now?

Fed Chairman Powell delivered a forceful and unequivocal message today at Jackson Hole, pushing back against market expectations of an early pivot back to rate cuts. Restoring price stability will require tight monetary policy for some time, he said, and the Fed will not waver when the labor market starts feeling the pain. Markets have taken notice, but will test the Fed’s resolve again, making for a volatile adjustment process in asset prices. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts:

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | August 26, 2022
On my mind: Are we there yet?
Fixed Income

On my mind: Are we there yet?

Are we there yet? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hedged himself carefully at the July press conference; markets heard it as confirming expectations that we are closing in on the terminal rate and that the Fed will likely start cutting again as early as March of next year. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai is not so sure—here are her thoughts:

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | July 27, 2022
On my mind: The Fed capitulates
Fixed Income

On my mind: The Fed capitulates

The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth. It also de facto abandoned forward guidance. It was a reminder that economic data eventually rule the day, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She argues this is a welcome but only partial move to a more realistic stance, and discusses why further hawkish surprises likely lie ahead.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | June 16, 2022
On my mind: Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun
Fixed Income

On my mind: Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai believes investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | May 24, 2022
Quick Thoughts: Are Central Banks Too Slow to Tackle Inflation?
Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: Are Central Banks Too Slow to Tackle Inflation?

Are the reserve banks too slow in tackling inflation? Will inflation level off by itself? Will rising rates cause a recession? Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, sat down with Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai and Western Asset Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst John Bellows to discuss the investment landscape considering today’s geopolitical and economic challenges.

Stephen H. Dover, CFA | March 31, 2022
On My Mind: The Fed Takes the Red Pill
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed Takes the Red Pill

The Fed struck a hawkish tone at its latest meeting, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai believes it still underestimates how far rates will likely need to rise—and so do the markets. She discusses what it will take to get inflation back under control, and how fixed income investors can position for the volatile rising-rate environment ahead.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 23, 2022
On My Mind: The US Dollar and the Retreat from Globalisation
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The US Dollar and the Retreat from Globalisation

With the war taking a tragic toll in Ukraine and triggering a major shift in the geopolitical and economic order, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses the implications for the US dollar’s status as dominant reserve currency, and for the pace of the energy transition.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 15, 2022
The Inflationary Shock of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Fixed Income

The Inflationary Shock of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ramifications for global inflation and growth, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. The team examines the dynamics underlying energy and certain agricultural commodities to explore the inflation implications.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 04, 2022
On My Mind: The Long and Winding Road…
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Long and Winding Road…

With inflation running at multi-decade highs, major central banks get ready to tighten monetary policy. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai argues they are well behind the curve—and why she thinks markets still underestimate the long, volatile adjustment period that lies ahead.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 14, 2022
Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate

Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue. Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently led a lively debate on the topic with Western Asset’s John Bellows and Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Sonal Desai.

Stephen H. Dover, CFA | January 25, 2022
On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want

The Fed seems to have been caught by surprise by its own policy and says this is not the inflation it was looking for. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, shares her thoughts on why inflation should not have come as a surprise and why investors need to brace for higher volatility as the Fed adjusts its policy stance.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | December 16, 2021