Beyond Bulls & Bears

On My Mind: It’s not the end of the world as we know it
Fixed Income

On My Mind: It’s not the end of the world as we know it

Recent data releases appear to give the green light for the US Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy in September. However, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai, the key issue remains the nature of the easing cycle ahead—namely its duration, its speed, and the policy rate endpoint.

On My Mind: (r)-stargazing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: (r)-stargazing

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses where she thinks the real policy rate lies in the United States and how this informs her outlook for US Treasury yields over the medium to long term.

On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell—I still haven’t found what I’m looking for…
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell—I still haven’t found what I’m looking for…

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that the Fed's March policy meeting was not as dovish as some commentators and market participants have claimed, and that the Fed is still pragmatic and cautious about inflation and rate cuts. In her view, getting inflation down to 2% will be harder and take longer than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expects, and she predicts that rate cuts will come only later—in the second half of the year.

Quick Thoughts: The Fed—Steady as she goes
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: The Fed—Steady as she goes

Thoughts on the US monetary policy path ahead from Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Rick Polsinello.

Quick Thoughts: Jackson Hole—Limited visibility, bumpy landing
Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: Jackson Hole—Limited visibility, bumpy landing

In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, conveys one clear message: interest rates aren’t coming down anytime soon.

On My Mind: Don’t bank on it
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Don’t bank on it

Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing

Markets think the war against inflation has been won—and the Fed seems to believe it too—but has it? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the latest data in light of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and examines whether a “painless landing” is possible.

On My Mind: Listen to the man
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Listen to the man

Financial markets seem to have gone from “don't fight the Fed” to “don’t believe the Fed,” opines Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She offers her thoughts following the US central bank’s December policy meeting, and warns to brace for more volatility ahead.

On my mind: Staying on message
Fixed Income

On my mind: Staying on message

The Fed delivered another 75 bps rate hike and reiterated its Jackson Hole message: reducing inflation is now its one and only priority. But the Fed's forecasts still seem too optimistic, and this could feed extended uncertainty and volatility in markets. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts.