Beyond Bulls & Bears

Still No Roadmap to a Brexit Resolution as EU Offers Another Extension
Fixed Income

Still No Roadmap to a Brexit Resolution as EU Offers Another Extension

Brexit may have been delayed again. The European Union has offered to allow the United Kingdom more time to decide how it wants to leave. While the measure may prevent a no-deal Brexit in the short-term, our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn thinks it may simply be saving up problems for the future.

Can the EU’s Extension Offer Really Break the Brexit Deadlock?
Fixed Income

Can the EU’s Extension Offer Really Break the Brexit Deadlock?

After a nail-biting few hours, European Union leaders have agreed to the UK government’s request to delay Brexit, albeit the extension is less than Theresa May had requested. But our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn believes the decision does little more than reset the clock and he warns there is still a strong chance that the United Kingdom could still crash out without a deal.

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive
Fixed Income

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive

“The markets should take some comfort in Powell, as he is a current Fed governor and more or less represents the current state of affairs, business as usual. He has worked alongside Yellen since 2012, and they are philosophically alike (dovish bent).” Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

European Drama Hasn’t Derailed US Growth

European Drama Hasn’t Derailed US Growth

We believe headwinds to growth have been easing and what the current leg of the US expansion has perhaps lacked in intensity may very well be made up for by a transition to a more durable or lengthy expansion.

China: Searching for a New Equilibrium

China: Searching for a New Equilibrium

Overall, based on our detailed analysis, we believe China will remain on course … while the economy shifts toward consumption, services and higher value-added manufacturing. This could have important implications for the global economy.

Global Economic Perspective: June

Global Economic Perspective: June

In spite of lingering concerns about Greece’s fate, the European economy would appear to have hit a sweet spot marked by steadily improving growth and inflation figures along with declining unemployment.

Global Economic Perspective: May

Global Economic Perspective: May

Although liquidity from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan will continue to seep into select markets, countries exposed to the US dollar could see bond yields—and hence debt service costs—rise as the Fed tightens policy.

2015 Asia Pacific Investor Forum Snapshot

2015 Asia Pacific Investor Forum Snapshot

To date, lower interest rates do not seem to have stimulated the domestic Australian economy. We think there’s probably more work to be done by the Reserve Bank, and therefore, we project yields will continue to decline, as likely will the Australian dollar.

Headwinds—or Tailwinds—for Fixed Income Investors

Headwinds—or Tailwinds—for Fixed Income Investors

As long-term, fundamental investors, we think the equilibrium rate—the prevailing interest rate when supply equals demand—for intermediate US Treasuries should be higher and likely will move higher—eventually.

Income-Seeking Australians Search for Yield

Income-Seeking Australians Search for Yield

Instead of chasing yields or returns, bond investors, in our view, should pause and consider how to best construct an investment strategy with the goal of delivering optimal risk and returns to better complement their overall portfolios.

2015 Investment Outlook: US Credit Cycle Tiptoes into Middle Age

2015 Investment Outlook: US Credit Cycle Tiptoes into Middle Age

In our view, companies' generally slow and steady approach to spending and expanding has delayed the US economy's progression through the credit cycle.

ECB Measures Highlight Draghi’s Determination

ECB Measures Highlight Draghi’s Determination

The ECB remains focused on getting liquidity into European banks and encouraging them to do something with that money.