Beyond Bulls & Bears

Yield Curve Hysteria
Fixed Income

Yield Curve Hysteria

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve has recently gotten a lot of attention in the financial press as being a harbinger of economic malaise ahead. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says these conclusions are misguided.

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?
Fixed Income

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?

In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut, our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai takes a look at how US central bank thinking seems to have changed, and whether there’s a risk of having interest rates too close to zero. She argues deflation risks are overblown and looser monetary policy will lead to increased financial market distortions.

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice
Fixed Income

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment” to sustain the US economic expansion. Powell appeared to struggle to reconcile his admission the US economy is strong with this decision, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She shares her thoughts on the July policy meeting and the potential market implications.

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk
Perspectives

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk

Equity markets continued to march higher in the first half of 2019, despite trade uncertainties and recessionary fears. An abrupt change to a more dovish stance among central bankers has recently provided fresh tinder to the equity fire. But does a looser policy stance signal there are cracks in the global economy’s foundation? Our senior investment leaders share their views on investing in uncertain times and how their outlooks have changed from earlier this year. They weigh in on market divergence, whether there is simply too much focus on the US Federal Reserve, where they see pockets of opportunity and how they are looking to play defence.

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts
Fixed Income

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its June meeting; it also emphasised its data-driven approach to policy decisions but noted it believes the case for lower interest rates to be strengthening. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why the Fed might actually be exacerbating market volatility ahead.

The EU: Singing from 28 Hymn Sheets
Fixed Income

The EU: Singing from 28 Hymn Sheets

What’s the investment lesson in Europe’s recent parliamentary elections? Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says it’s differentiation. Read more of what’s on her mind about this topic. 

On My Mind: Embracing Tech Disruption—Four Lessons For Fixed Income Investors
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Embracing Tech Disruption—Four Lessons For Fixed Income Investors

The impact of innovation on productivity, economic growth and global trade will be more profound than most people realise, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She shares her thoughts on the subject and other key takeaways from our annual Global Investment Forum in San Francisco.

On My Mind: Trade Wars—The Dog That Didn’t Bark
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Trade Wars—The Dog That Didn’t Bark

The prospect of a “trade war” between the United States and China has caused some investor trepidation over the past year. But are the fears of economic fallout from this “war” warranted? And, was there ever really a war at all? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai weighs in.

Is the US Yield Curve Signalling a US Recession?
Fixed Income

Is the US Yield Curve Signalling a US Recession?

Although one part of the US yield curve has inverted this year, investment leaders from Franklin Templeton explain why they aren’t concerned about a US recession—at least not yet.

PODCAST: Market Resilience: Strength in Numbers
Perspectives

PODCAST: Market Resilience: Strength in Numbers

Concerns about where the financial markets are heading are at the forefront of many investors’ minds. The risks of a US or global recession this year continue to persist amid slowing global growth, trade tensions and worries about potential geopolitical shocks. Our senior investment leaders see a different story unfolding. In this roundtable discussion, they outline why they think some market observers are misguided and where they see opportunities today.

Steady Fed Maintains Dovish Stance
Fixed Income

Steady Fed Maintains Dovish Stance

The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady at its March meeting came as little surprise, but its updated “dot plot” projections were interpreted by markets as sending a decidedly more dovish signal than expected. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why she feels markets shouldn’t read too much into the dots.

On My Mind: Modern Magical Thinking
Alternatives

On My Mind: Modern Magical Thinking

In economic (and political) circles, “Modern Monetary Theory” has gotten some buzz of late. What does it mean—and does it have any merit? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai thinks it’s not only potentially dangerous, but offers intellectual fuel for populism.