Beyond Bulls & Bears

Archives

On My Mind: The Fed and markets—Same as it ever was
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed and markets—Same as it ever was

A dovish nudge in the Federal Reserve's (Fed’s) November press conference pushed markets to again price a significant monetary easing as early as mid-2024. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this market reaction as an excess of exuberance that sets the stage for more volatility. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | November 06, 2023
On My Mind: Restrictive? We’ll know it when we see it.
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Restrictive? We’ll know it when we see it.

The Fed sent a strong signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has long predicted. The Fed also started to acknowledge that the natural real rate of interest is higher than it thought. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | September 21, 2023
On My Mind: The structural shift that wasn’t
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The structural shift that wasn’t

Markets seem to be coming around to our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s view that the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, but now runaway fiscal deficits pose further upside risk to yields in the long term, she warns. She shares her latest insights on the fiscal and monetary outlook and the implications for investors.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | August 23, 2023
On My Mind: Debt ceiling to markets—I’ll be back!
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Debt ceiling to markets—I’ll be back!

The debt ceiling crisis has been averted—but this short-term relief might come at the cost of greater future peril. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the debt-ceiling resolution and delves into the potential longer-term risks that rising public debt poses to financial markets.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | June 06, 2023
Tumultuous times: Understanding the macroeconomic landscape
Fixed Income

Tumultuous times: Understanding the macroeconomic landscape

Fixed income sectors that eliminate credit risk seem to be pricing in a recession while sectors willing to take credit risk seem to be much more optimistic. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai and Portfolio Manager Rick Klein tell us what they think these diverging views imply.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | May 25, 2023
On My Mind: The Fed fights inflation, the markets fight the Fed
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed fights inflation, the markets fight the Fed

Markets want to believe policy interest rates will soon fall—but inflation and growth data tell a very different story, argues Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | May 10, 2023
On My Mind: Don’t bank on it
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Don’t bank on it

Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 22, 2023
On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Fed to markets—keep dancing

Markets think the war against inflation has been won—and the Fed seems to believe it too—but has it? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the latest data in light of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and examines whether a “painless landing” is possible.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 02, 2023
On My Mind: Transitory tightening?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Transitory tightening?

Does the latest US data confirm the battle against inflation has already been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says markets are overly optimistic.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | January 19, 2023
On My Mind: Listen to the man
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Listen to the man

Financial markets seem to have gone from “don't fight the Fed” to “don’t believe the Fed,” opines Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She offers her thoughts following the US central bank’s December policy meeting, and warns to brace for more volatility ahead.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | December 14, 2022
On my mind: A different kind of pivot
Fixed Income

On my mind: A different kind of pivot

Markets hoped for a dovish Federal Reserve “pivot,” but got a hawkish surprise instead. Brace for more volatility as the yield curve adjusts, warns Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She sees the fixed income outlook as more constructive moving further forward in 2023.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | November 02, 2022
On my mind: Rollercoaster ride to reality
Fixed Income

On my mind: Rollercoaster ride to reality

We are witnessing a major shift in the fixed income investment environment. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai assesses the role of global and country-specific driving forces, and shares her views on the investment opportunities ahead.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | October 17, 2022