Beyond Bulls & Bears

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?

There has been a lot of talk this year about the flattening of the US yield curve—which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. Our senior investment leaders make a case that the “predictive power” of the yield curve when it comes to the US economy may not really be so predictive this time around.

Global Economic Perspective: October
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, our Fixed Income Group discusses whether optimism about the US economy is justified, and whether Italy’s budget talks could lead to looser fiscal policy elsewhere in the eurozone.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week proved to be a difficult week for many asset classes, with a number of catalysts contributing to a slump across markets on Wednesday. Rising US Treasury yields set the scene for the mid-week selloff, but didn’t account for the full scale of it. Concerns about growth slowdown, trade tensions, and the pace of interest rate rises also played their part.

Hasenstab: Focus on Fundamentals in US, Emerging Markets
Fixed Income

Hasenstab: Focus on Fundamentals in US, Emerging Markets

“If you have a three-month time horizon, EM investing is very difficult. If you have a couple-year horizon, you can exploit these panic sell-offs that are not fundamental in nature.” - Michael Hasenstab

Italy’s Inflection Point as It Prepares to Unveil Spending Plans
Fixed Income

Italy’s Inflection Point as It Prepares to Unveil Spending Plans

Controversial spending plans outlined by Italy’s populist government caused consternation among investors at the beginning of October. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, considers how the coalition government’s growing popularity could influence the European Union’s response. And he explores the implications for the wider eurozone.

A View from Canada on the New USMCA
Multi-Asset

A View from Canada on the New USMCA

“In our view, the new North American trade deal is neither especially good nor bad for Canada and Mexico. But the fact that it clears away some of the uncertainties is positive, in our eyes. This new deal may support capital expenditure and remove a headwind from future growth.” – Stephen Lingard, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions

Active ETFs: For Fixed Income Investors Who Don’t Want to Follow the Pack
LibertyShares

Active ETFs: For Fixed Income Investors Who Don’t Want to Follow the Pack

“At times of volatility, when momentum-driven movement of indices might present potential investment opportunities, active ETFs could provide access to investment management expertise combined with the attractive features of an ETF vehicle.” Jason Xavier, head of EMEA ETF Capital Markets

Innovation Stretches Beyond Labels
Equity

Innovation Stretches Beyond Labels

“We broadly agree with the GICS reclassification and believe the new sector homes for many stocks better reflect their core business lines. However, we might suggest the GICS reform doesn’t go far enough. As long-term investors, we classify companies according to their ‘end-market’, or the need that is being met.” – Matthew Moberg, Franklin Equity Group

Lifting the Lid on Social Infrastructure
Alternatives

Lifting the Lid on Social Infrastructure

“While access to social services across Europe is essential for economic growth and prosperity, not enough is being done to build and adequately maintain the requisite facilities. Through investing in social infrastructure, investors can add much-needed private capital to boost and protect the social services being provided to communities.” - Raymond Jacobs, Franklin Real Asset Advisors

Fed Full Steam Ahead
Fixed Income

Fed Full Steam Ahead

The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate for the third time this year, which was no surprise to market participants. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the Fed’s “normalisation” path in light of what he sees as an overall positive US economic backdrop.

As Public Attitudes Towards the Environment Change, So Should the Investment Approach
Fixed Income

As Public Attitudes Towards the Environment Change, So Should the Investment Approach

“After attending this year’s Principles for Responsible Investment Conference (PRI) in San Francisco, our takeaway message is clear: Investors and investment managers have to be proactive in addressing changing public attitudes toward the environment.” -David Zahn

New Innovation Spurring a Biotech Rejuvenation
Equity

New Innovation Spurring a Biotech Rejuvenation

“We’ve seen medical advancements and breakthroughs in drugs and health care technology reach unprecedented levels in recent years. We foresee this potentially long cycle of innovation persisting.” – Evan McCulloch, Franklin Equity Group